Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ category

How about a joke?

April 12th, 2010

Scene: Harvard economics class in 2020 taught by Ben Bernanke. After a late night of studying, a student falls asleep in class. This sent Bernanke into a frenzy and he came over and pounded on the desk, demanding an answer to a question he had just posed. The student, shaken but now awake says “I’m sorry Professor, I missed the question — but the answer is increase the money supply…”

Can the US default?

April 1st, 2010

Bill Gross doesn’t think so… well, kinda. In his latest commentary, he asks if a country can get out of a financial crisis by issuing more debt, and believes that it can as long as it meets three conditions:

1. Can a country issue its own currency and is it acceptable in global commerce?
2. Are a country’s initial conditions (outstanding debt, structural deficit, growth rate, demographic balance) moderate and can it issue future public debt as a substitute for private credit?
3. Can a country’s central bank be allowed to reflate via low or negative real interest rates without creating a currency crisis?

Based on this, its fairly safe to say that the US won’t default on it’s debt, but Treasury bonds are a far cry from good investment, especially given the deficit, which, in the end, may need to be solved by printing more money. And that thing called ObamaCare certainly won’t help.

On a side note, last month Gross talked about how corporate spreads may be tightening as sovereigns become riskier and there may be a “unicredit bond market.” Interesting point – which would  be safer: a global AAA-rated corporation that is essentially currency-independent or a country with trillions of dollars of debt?

innovative marketing by smith & wollensky

February 21st, 2010

http://www.steakforstock.com/

This highly regarded and prestigious steakhouse in midtown is adapting to the changing times. Now you can buy your excellent steak in exchange for stock. I guess the barter system is partially back. For instance one share of Citigroup will buy you 1/2 an order of creamed spinach. But a share of JP Morgan will get you a lobster tail. Hm a new valuation tool?

Greece and Swaps

February 10th, 2010

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,676634,00.html

Greek Debt Crisis
How Goldman Sachs Helped Greece to Mask its True Debt

By Beat Balzli
Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou speaking at a conference in January.
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Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou speaking at a conference in January.

Goldman Sachs helped the Greek government to mask the true extent of its deficit with the help of a derivatives deal that legally circumvented the EU Maastricht deficit rules. At some point the so-called cross currency swaps will mature, and swell the country’s already bloated deficit.

Greeks aren’t very welcome in the Rue Alphones Weicker in Luxembourg. It’s home to Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical office. The number crunchers there are deeply annoyed with Athens. Investigative reports state that important data “cannot be confirmed” or has been requested but “not received.”

Creative accounting took priority when it came to totting up government debt.Since 1999, the Maastricht rules threaten to slap hefty fines on euro member countries that exceed the budget deficit limit of three percent of gross domestic product. Total government debt mustn’t exceed 60 percent.

The Greeks have never managed to stick to the 60 percent debt limit, and they only adhered to the three percent deficit ceiling with the help of blatant balance sheet cosmetics. One time, gigantic military expenditures were left out, and another time billions in hospital debt. After recalculating the figures, the experts at Eurostat consistently came up with the same results: In truth, the deficit each year has been far greater than the three percent limit. In 2009, it exploded to over 12 percent.

Now, though, it looks like the Greek figure jugglers have been even more brazen than was previously thought. “Around 2002 in particular, various investment banks offered complex financial products with which governments could push part of their liabilities into the future,” one insider recalled, adding that Mediterranean countries had snapped up such products.

Greece’s debt managers agreed a huge deal with the savvy bankers of US investment bank Goldman Sachs at the start of 2002. The deal involved so-called cross-currency swaps in which government debt issued in dollars and yen was swapped for euro debt for a certain period — to be exchanged back into the original currencies at a later date.

Fictional Exchange Rates

Such transactions are part of normal government refinancing. Europe’s governments obtain funds from investors around the world by issuing bonds in yen, dollar or Swiss francs. But they need euros to pay their daily bills. Years later the bonds are repaid in the original foreign denominations.

But in the Greek case the US bankers devised a special kind of swap with fictional exchange rates. That enabled Greece to receive a far higher sum than the actual euro market value of 10 billion dollars or yen. In that way Goldman Sachs secretly arranged additional credit of up to $1 billion for the Greeks.

This credit disguised as a swap didn’t show up in the Greek debt statistics. Eurostat’s reporting rules don’t comprehensively record transactions involving financial derivatives. “The Maastricht rules can be circumvented quite legally through swaps,” says a German derivatives dealer.

In previous years, Italy used a similar trick to mask its true debt with the help of a different US bank. In 2002 the Greek deficit amounted to 1.2 percent of GDP. After Eurostat reviewed the data in September 2004, the ratio had to be revised up to 3.7 percent. According to today’s records, it stands at 5.2 percent.

At some point Greece will have to pay up for its swap transactions, and that will impact its deficit. The bond maturities range between 10 and 15 years. Goldman Sachs charged a hefty commission for the deal and sold the swaps on to a Greek bank in 2005.

The bank declined to comment on the controversial deal. The Greek Finance Ministry did not respond to a written request for comment.

iPad

February 2nd, 2010

Kicking off 2010 with record high earnings, Steve Jobs completely overshadowed Apple’s achievement by releasing his newest brainchild to the world, the iPad.

“Last time there was this much excitement about a tablet, it had some commandments written on it.” -WSJ
Lightweight and powerful, the iPad is Steve Job’s perfect amalgamation of the laptop and the smartphone. Jobs argues that netbooks, which claim to draw from the benefits of both devices, can’t do what a laptop does best, and can’t do what a smartphone does best. Thus, replacing the netbook in its specialty niche between the two, Jobs markets the iPad for its capacity to browse the internet, send emails, share photos, watch videos, listen to music, play games, and read ebooks, ALL better than both the laptop and the smartphone. As Jobs said in Apple’s January Event, “Netbooks are slow, have low-quality displays, and they run clunky, old PC software, so they’re not better than a laptop at anything. They’re just cheaper.”
And while I appreciate the $500 price point for a 10-hour battery 16GB non-3G iPad, I don’t necessarily buy Jobs’ pitch for the iPad.
Essentially, I see the current first generation of iPad as an overgrown iPod Touch (with the capacity for 3G if you want to pay up). Obviously its robust hardware and what looks to be a beautiful screen beat out the iPod Touch irrefutably, but the iPad does not revolutionize the netbook market- an evolution perhaps, but not a revolution. And it’s not that I don’t love Apple products. Unfortunately, I too have fallen prey to Steve Jobs, the quintessential snake oil salesman, and I’m sure by the time a few revisions are put into the iPad I too will be cradling my beautiful tablet. But, as my primary gripe about the current iPad, without the capacity to multitask, the iPad is just a nice paper weight. Without the ability to go to on the web to stream music on Pandora while reading my ebook, or going over my PDF’d notes while buying songs off the iTunes Music Store… well, the iPad is useless.
So, while I don’t see iPad sales bolstering Apple’s stock price any time soon with this current generation, like I said, Steve Jobs, the quintessential snake oil salesman, always seems to make people need things they didn’t even know they wanted. In fact, I’m sure my first, second, and third generation iPods can speak to that fact…
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Proprietary Trading Restrictions

January 26th, 2010

Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker and President Obama are shooting straight for the jugular with their newly presented proposal to eliminate proprietary trading from large investment firms. Proprietary trading, a firm’s ability to trade for direct gain instead of for commission (as seen in hedge funds), allowed the top tier of today’s investment banks to thrive over their industry counterparts. However, with top firms such as Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan Stanley so heavily weighted in prop trading, this restriction will essentially be sending these firms back to square one with the wave of a pen. Bringing in more than 90% of Goldman’s pretax earnings last year, the prospective restrictions on prop trading are obviously going to bring a resounding halt to the investment firms’ recoveries.

At the Economic Club of New York, Volcker was quoted as saying, “The point is that they present added risk and virtually unmanageable conflicts of interest with more essential customer relationships.” And moreover, Obama in his January 20th address stated, “My resolve to reform the system is only strengthened when I see a return to old practices at some of the very firms fighting reform; and when I see record profits at some of the very firms claiming that they cannot lend more to small business, cannot keep credit card rates low, and cannot refund taxpayers for the bailout. It is exactly this kind of irresponsibility that makes clear reform is necessary.” Thus, with the best interest of Joe the Plumber (is that term still kosher?) in mind, Obama has deemed the current financial services industry unfit to exist in its current state. And as such, Obama is dramatically restructuring the present financial landscape.

This proposal addresses two essential issues: limiting the scope and limiting the size. To limit the scope, Obama plans to “work with Congress to ensure that no bank or financial institution that contains a bank will own, invest in or sponsor a hedge fund or a private equity fund, or proprietary trading operations unrelated to serving customers for its own profit.” And to limit the size, Obama plans to “place broader limits on the excessive growth of the market share of liabilities at the largest financial firms, to supplement existing caps on the market share of deposits.”

So, with the economy in the state that it is- are we ready to put such a heavy burden on the financial industry? Like Obama said, that these investment firms cannot lend out even though they are realizing record profits, how would they perform under these unrelenting restrictions? And if the banks cannot loan out apt amounts of money, what are the grander implications on the recovery of the U.S. economy?

And on an unrelated tangent…

http://pragcap.com/the-ultimate-guide-to-2010-investment-predictions-and-outlooks

A good read for those with time

Cheap bail-out

January 22nd, 2010

bailoutTARP deployed upto $700bn to save the financial system. The final cost however turns out to be much lower. In August 2009 the bill was estimated to be $341bn, revised down to $117bn this month. The final number, according to the administration, is expected to be $90bn.. and that is almost equal to carmakers bailout + AIG + subsidies to homeowners. America did not even experience a simultaneous currency crisis. This really means that the crisis barely costs 1% of the GDP!

To put that in relative context, IMF issued a paper – Leaven & Valencia - that examines all the past banking crises between 1970 to 2007 concluding that the average cost of such events is around 16% of the GDP. This paper has a good database so check out the tables that start from pg.32. We notice that although countries have adopted different crisis management strategies, almost all of them used emergency liquidity support and blanket guarantees.

Too good to believe?
Well..
1. The cirsis is rooted in illiquidity, not insolvency.
2. It’s too early. The long term performance of the economy determines the ultimate amount of aid the ailing financial system requires. For example, in 1996 Japan’s bail out cost was penciled at 3% of GDP. Today it is 14%.
3. Numbers are too optimistic. Perhaps the government accounting takes a narrow view of the fiscal cost of the crisis leaving out impact of the recession on the broader economy

The Frugal Generation?

January 18th, 2010

Recently, I’ve noticed a new trend that seems to be applying to the generation of the early 90s, or Generation Y/Z (disputes occur regarding the calendar frequently), and this trend focuses on the spending habits of youthful adults. Economists have noticed that we have cut back in general, like during the Great Depression, and this will probably continue throughout our entire lives. The generation from which he have come is known for spending, interestingly enough, and so I wonder if that is why the “Great Recession” hurt them on the level it did. Obviously, savings were not large enough, but did the spending and over-budgeting habits kill the Baby Boomers?

On another note, I’ve observed that a dollar has lasted longer if it is my own money . . . I still spend the money that I receive from my mother rather foolishly (I’m food-minded and Hugo Boss is my life partner), but I know that I’m not the only one who’s truly beginning to appreciate the value of a dollar, in general. As business and economically-minded individuals, an amount of currency holds a sacred status with us, since we want to multiply it, and of course, spend it! I’m approaching my penultimate year, and as I freak out about internships and other rather unimportant concepts, I want to hear your thoughts on this topic. Do you think your spending habits have been changed forever, temporarily, or not at all? Have you started saving or investing wisely?

Low US interest rates and the Asian bubble

November 18th, 2009

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aQz3J1NVh0wI

Extended low fed funds rate potentially causing another crisis..in Asia? This time it is the dollar liquidity sparking carry trade, not the yen.

For more on the Asian bubble:

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/151587-asia-in-a-bubble-what-bubble.html